
Attention, L’Jarius Sneed and Rashan Gary. Both of you are well on your way to adding a few more zeroes to the end of your contract numbers once you land new deals heading into the 2024 season.
But which other potential 2024 NFL free agents could be cashing in? And which players have hurt their chances of signing monster contracts this offseason through the first six weeks of this season?
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Here’s a stock watch for some of the notable projected 2024 free agents as we’re a third of the way through the 2023 campaign.
(Free agent status — either unrestricted or contract voids — is courtesy of Over the Cap. Stats are via TruMedia unless otherwise noted. These numbers exclude the New Orleans Saints–Jacksonville Jaguars TNF matchup in Week 7.)
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins headlines the potential free agent group with Baker Mayfield, Joshua Dobbs and Gardner Minshew also seeing significant playing time as a starter. First, let’s examine how each quarterback stacks up across the league this season in a few categories: Expected Points Added per dropback, passer rating, completion percentage and EPA per dropback against the blitz.
| player | EPA/DB | PsrRt | Comp% | EPA/blz |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.06 (10) | 91.3 (13) | 65.4 (17) | 0.31 (4) | |
-0.02 (15) | 84.0 (21) | 62.8 (25) | 0.43 (1) | |
-0.04 (17) | 100.6 (6) | 67.2 (13) | -0.15 (25) | |
-0.10 (24) | 81.3 (25) | 65.2 (18) | -0.15 (26) |
Cousins hasn’t been helped by a league-high 17 dropped passes. But he seems to be following a path similar to Derek Carr last season. In my view, they’re essentially the same guy. Will a team be willing to shell out big money for someone like Cousins whose ceiling is falling?
Both Dobbs and Minshew are likely trying to bolster their case as viable backups.
Dobbs started strong after jumping in almost immediately following the late-summer trade to the Arizona Cardinals. But as an injured Kyler Murray appears close to returning, Dobbs’ numbers have fallen off the last two weeks. Minshew already has seen more action than the Indianapolis Colts likely hoped. Now he could be the guy the rest of the way if rookie Anthony Richardson does miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury.
Mayfield will be a very interesting case moving forward. He’s played better than many, me included, expected during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 3-2 start. Mayfield fared well against the Minnesota Vikings, Saints and Chicago Bears, but struggled against the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. As of now, his free-agent appeal is pointing up.
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I didn’t focus on Ryan Tannehill since his time as a starter with the Tennessee Titans will likely be up after this year. But for reference, Tannehill has produced two of the worst single-game passer ratings of his career this season. Overall, he ranks 32nd in passer rating and 25th in EPA rate, a spot below Minshew.
Running back
It’s basically a who’s-who of fantasy football favorites: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard. But it’s two others making the strongest case to cash in next season given how they’ve performed thus far.
Here’s a look at the potential free agent class (min. 60 touches so far this season; ranks among 34 running backs):
| player | Touches | EPA/Tar+Rush | EPA/Rush |
|---|---|---|---|
132 (3) | -0.13 (22) | -0.18 (27) | |
121 (4) | -0.10 (17) | -0.14 (24) | |
110 (6) | 0.07 (4) | 0.04 (7) | |
109 (8) | -0.11 (18) | -0.16 (26) | |
109 (8) | 0.06 (5) | 0.16 (2) | |
75 (26) | -0.13 (21) | -0.12 (23) | |
67 (29) | -0.08 (16) | -0.09 (18) | |
66 (31) | -0.24 (29) | -0.21 (30) | |
62 (32) | -0.24 (30) | -0.09 (20) | |
60 (34) | -0.13 (20) | -0.07 (16) |
(Ekeler only has 38 touches with a 0.05 EPA per target/rush rate and a -0.01 EPA per rush rate.)
I assume Jonathan Taylor will cut into Moss’ touches since the Colts extended Taylor’s contract recently. But Moss’ early production should be on teams’ radars come next March.
Swift is continuing his upward trajectory from last season. I highlighted Swift in a running back study over the summer. Swift finished last season seventh in EPA per target/rush (0.07) and fifth in EPA per rush (0.08) with 147 touches during his final year in Detroit.
Wide receiver
Let’s highlight six wideouts here, all in unique scenarios this season and moving forward (min. four targets per game; ranks among 85 wide receivers):
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Tar |
|---|---|---|---|
0.33 (28) | 1.4 (13) | 41 (29) | |
0.60 (12) | 1.3 (16) | 30 (50) | |
0.30 (34) | 1.2 (24) | 44 (20) | |
-0.17 (66) | 1.2 (26) | 36 (39) | |
0.17 (44) | 1.1 (33) | 53 (11) | |
-0.10 (61) | 0.6 (70) | 60 (4) |
Mike Evans doesn’t seem like he’s lost a step in Year 10. He’s producing better than he did in his final season with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay and remains on pace in EPA per reception with all of his years with Brady.
Of all the potential free-agent receivers, Tee Higgins may have raised the most red flags so far. Injuries, drops and lack of production have all plagued the Cincinnati Bengals’ No. 2 wideout.
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Calvin Ridley has elevated to at least 1A with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s only a handful of targets behind Christian Kirk and possesses far better EPA rates than his teammate. Off-field circumstances could play a role in Ridley’s future past 2023, but sustained production like this should lead to a significant market for his services.
And don’t be fooled by Michael Pittman’s numbers. The Colts receiver only has one drop in 60 targets so far, meaning his lower rates are less on his shoulders than it appears. Pittman could be among the most coveted receivers if he hits the market in March.
Tight end
I zeroed in on four tight ends to monitor:
| player | EPA/Tar | EPA/rec | Tar |
|---|---|---|---|
0.29 (5) | 1.2 (2) | 28 (15) | |
0.26 (6) | 0.5 (17) | 19 (26) | |
0.24 (7) | 0.7 (12) | 20 (25) | |
0.20 (10) | 0.8 (7) | 34 (9) |
(Min. three targets per game; ranks among 31 tight ends)
Dalton Schultz signing a one-year deal with the Houston Texans seemed like a bit of a head-scratcher last spring, but Schultz’s gamble is well on its way to paying off as he’s thriving with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Meanwhile, the EPA-per-reception mark for the New England Patriots’ Hunter Henry more resembles a wide receiver rate than that of a tight end.
Offensive line
Tackle
Trent Brown has been a bright-ish spot for an otherwise rough Patriots offense as he’s allowed a 3.6 percent pressure rate, which ranks 10th among 71 qualified tackles (min. 72 pass-block snaps at tackle; average rate for tackle is 6.0 percent). It’s all a notable improvement from his 6.3 percent rate last season.
Tyron Smith remains stout in Year 13 with his contract set to void after this season. The Dallas Cowboys’ left tackle is yielding a 3.9 percent pressure rate. Right tackle seems to fit the Bengals’ Jonah Williams better after his first three seasons at left tackle. He carries a 4.0 percent pressure rate. It may also help that Joe Burrow is one of the fastest quarterbacks in terms of getting rid of the football.
Conversely, it’s not going well for the New York Jets’ Mekhi Becton. He’s allowed a 9.0 percent pressure rate including four sacks and has had four penalties credited to him.
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Guard
The Miami Dolphins’ Robert Hunt watched his pass pressure percentage drop from 4.7 to 4.1 to 3.3 from 2020-22, respectively. But his 2023 rate is microscopic at 0.5 percent on 211 pass-block snaps. Quick release or not by Tua Tagovailoa, Hunt’s rates can’t be ignored.
Other notables protecting better than the 4.8 percent league average for guards: the Las Vegas Raiders’ Greg Van Roten (2.8), the Green Bay Packers’ Jon Runyan (3.3), the Patriots’ Michael Onwenu (3.9), the Minnesota Vikings’ Ezra Cleveland (4.0) and the Ravens’ John Simpson (4.2) and Kevin Zeitler (4.2). Onwenu and Simpson need to watch the penalties, though, with four infractions each.
The Lions’ Jonah Jackson (7.1) and the Jaguars’ Ben Bartch (6.1) are well above average, in a bad way, in pressure percentage.
Center
The Denver Broncos’ Lloyd Cushenberry is having the best season in his four-year career in terms of pressure percentage allowed with a 1.4 percent rate (average rate for center: 3.9 percent). That’s an improvement from 3.1 percent in 2022 and 4.2 percent in 2021.
It hasn’t been nearly as swell for the Cowboys’ Tyler Biadasz (5.6) and the Jets’ Connor McGovern (6.0).
Edge rusher
High sack totals don’t necessarily translate into pass pressure percentage for defenders and vice versa. So let’s examine each aspect for potential free agents.
(Min. 60 pass-rush snaps; ranks among 210 pass rushers)
Sack leaders
Pass pressure percentage
| player | Prsr% | Sack |
|---|---|---|
30.8 (1) | 2.5 (54) | |
26.3 (2) | 4.5 (14) | |
20.0 (7) | 2.0 (69) | |
18.2 (10) | 3.0 (38) | |
17.0 (17) | 3.5 (30) | |
16.9 (18) | 1.0 (97) | |
16.5 (20) | 4.0 (19) | |
16.1 (22) | 4.0 (19) | |
15.0 (34) | 0.0 (158) | |
14.7 (38) | 1.0 (97) |
The Jets’ Bryce Huff jumped from an 8.8 percent pressure rate in 2021 to a 22.0 percent rate on 164 pass-rush snaps last year. That was No. 1 among all passer rushers last season (min. 160 pass-rush snaps). The Jets saw that and have used him more in 2023. He’s yielded a monstrous pressure rate in 107 pass-rush snaps this season. Keep this up and teams will open their wallets for Huff this offseason.
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Gary was already one of the best pass rushers in the league before his knee injury midway through last season. He’s only played 76 pass-rush snaps this season as Green Bay works him back in. Hard not to applaud Gary’s comeback year.
The Patriots’ Josh Uche has been one of the NFL’s most effective pass rushers over the past two seasons. He ranked No. 2 in pass pressure rate (21.1 percent) last season, along with 11.5 sacks.
Danielle Hunter’s league-leading sack total obviously pops off the page. That has come with an average pass pressure rate, though, with the league average at 10.5 percent. The Jags’ Josh Allen and the Panthers’ Brian Burns should be hot names in free agency if they’re not hit with the franchise tag.
Interior defensive linemen
The Chiefs’ Chris Jones should be the highest-paid defensive tackle. Now that the obvious is out of the way, here’s a peak at the pass-rush rates for some notable potential free agents:
Of course, it’s not all about pass rush when it comes to interior defensive linemen. The Vikings’ Jonathan Bullard has been a force against the run. He ranks No. 2 among defensive linemen with a run stuff+TFL-per-run-snap rate of 11.1 percent (min. 40 run defense snaps; ranks among 176 interior D-linemen). Only the Bills’ Ed Oliver rates higher (11.9 percent).
Linebacker
It’s a spotlight on the 2019 and 2020 NFL Draft classes here with four first-round picks and one second-round selection on the verge of free agency:
| player | Snap/Splash | Splash |
|---|---|---|
15.3 (4) | 18 (9) | |
18.6 (10) | 21 (2) | |
25.4 (30) | 13 (25) | |
28.9 (38) | 8 (46) | |
39.6 (49) | 8 (46) |
(Splash play = sacks+TFLs+pressures leading to throw aways+run and pass stuffs+interceptions+forced fumbles+fumble recoveries+passed defensed+stops on third and fourth down)
The Seahawks’ Jordyn Brooks has played at an elite level in 2023. He ranks No. 1 in Sports Info Solutions’ “Total Points Saved” metric among traditional linebackers. Brooks’ splash-play-per-snap rate last year was 36.6, a career low. So he’s playing noticeably better in that area in a contract year.
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The Ravens’ Patrick Queen isn’t too far behind in the SIS metric rankings as he’s tied for fifth. He’s also 11th in splash play rate at 18.6 and ranks second with 21 total splash plays. His best rate for a season came last year at 22.9 percent.
The Chargers’ Kenneth Murray is on pace for the best splash play rate of his career with his previous best of 30.0 percent occurring last season. The Bucs’ Devin White is off to a slow start, though, given his splash play rate sat at 24.2 last season. The Chiefs’ Willie Gay yielded an impressive 16.9 splash-play rate last season, a career best.
Secondary
Cornerback
Here’s a glimpse at a group of players set to hit the mark who are are performing well (stats via Pro Football Reference):
Sneed should be ready to open the vault for all the money that he’s going to take in. He’s been a key factor behind Kansas City’s success defensively, and he seems to be improving by the day. The Cowboys’ 33-year-old Stephon Gilmore is continuing to play at an elite level.
The Bears’ Jaylon Johnson improved last season and has built upon that through his four games in 2023. The Rams’ Ahkello Witherspoon has come out of nowhere in the veteran’s first year in Los Angeles.
And now here’s a peek at those not performing as well:
Safety
It’s tough to pin “targets” on a safety so we’ll stay away from doing that.
The Bucs’ Antoine Winfield stands out as a top free agent at the position without looking at statistics, but the metrics back up the eye test. Winfield ranks No. 3 among safeties in SIS’ “Total Points Saved” metric. The Ravens’ Geno Stone is tied for seventh in the metric and he has three interceptions already.
Not as high on the SIS metric, but the Browns’ Grant Delpit has made plays the past two seasons for Cleveland. He picked off four passes last year and has one interception and one fumble recovery so far in 2023 for the league’s top defensive unit.
(Top photo of Bryce Huff: Winslow Townson / USA TODAY Sports)
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